By Hami Tahm · Last updated: July 2026
HomeCalc Research · July 2026 edition (June 2026 HPI cohort)
Renewal Shock Index 2026 — Canada's Mortgage Renewal Payment Ranking
Which Canadian city faces the biggest mortgage renewal shock in 2026?
Greater Vancouver homeowners renewing a 2021 five-year fixed mortgage face Canada's biggest modelled payment jump in 2026: about $803 more per month, a 21.5% payment increase, according to the HomeCalc Renewal Shock Index. Greater Toronto ranks second at roughly $758, followed by Hamilton–Burlington at $597. The model uses CREA benchmark prices and observed Bank of Canada mortgage rates (2.14% in June 2021 → 4.34% in May 2026).
#1 · Greater Vancouver
+$803
+21.5% payment increase
$3,742 → $4,545 / month
What the data says
- Vancouver leads in dollars. Greater Vancouver posts the largest modelled monthly payment jump at +$803 — reflecting the highest 2021 CREA benchmark price among the 15 markets, and therefore the largest remaining balance at renewal under the standardized scenario.
- Toronto is close behind. Greater Toronto ranks second at +$758 / month, with Hamilton–Burlington third at +$597. High-priced Ontario and B.C. markets dominate the top of the dollar ranking.
- The model passes the national check. Across all 15 markets the payment increase is 21.5% — inside the Bank of Canada's published range for five-year fixed renewers (about 15%–20% versus December 2024 payments, and roughly 20% for 2026 renewals of that product).
Top six markets by monthly shock
- 1. Greater Vancouver+$803
- 2. Greater Toronto+$758
- 3. Hamilton–Burlington+$597
- 4. Victoria+$588
- 5. Ottawa+$455
- 6. Montréal CMA+$351
Full ranking — 15 Canadian markets
| Rank | Market | 2021 benchmark | 2026 benchmark | Balance at renewal | Payment before → after | Monthly shock |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greater Vancouver | $1,087,300 | $1,099,100 | $730,807 | $3,742 → $4,545 | +$803 |
| 2 | Greater Toronto | $1,026,400 | $940,800 | $689,875 | $3,533 → $4,291 | +$758 |
| 3 | Hamilton–Burlington | $807,700 | $737,400 | $542,880 | $2,780 → $3,377 | +$597 |
| 4 | Victoria | $796,700 | $890,100 | $535,486 | $2,742 → $3,331 | +$588 |
| 5 | Ottawa | $615,400 | $632,200 | $413,629 | $2,118 → $2,573 | +$455 |
| 6 | Montréal CMA | $475,200 | $596,300 | $319,396 | $1,636 → $1,987 | +$351 |
| 7 | Calgary | $458,600 | $576,200 | $308,239 | $1,578 → $1,917 | +$339 |
| 8 | Halifax–Dartmouth | $445,000 | $561,300 | $299,098 | $1,532 → $1,860 | +$329 |
| 9 | Edmonton | $374,400 | $423,900 | $251,646 | $1,289 → $1,565 | +$277 |
| 10 | Saskatoon | $351,100 | $448,400 | $235,985 | $1,208 → $1,468 | +$259 |
| 11 | Winnipeg | $335,100 | $403,200 | $225,231 | $1,153 → $1,401 | +$247 |
| 12 | Regina | $312,300 | $356,400 | $209,906 | $1,075 → $1,306 | +$231 |
| 13 | Québec CMA | $290,500 | $444,600 | $195,254 | $1,000 → $1,214 | +$215 |
| 14 | St. John's | $287,200 | $423,600 | $193,036 | $989 → $1,201 | +$212 |
| 15 | Greater Moncton | $254,500 | $384,100 | $171,057 | $876 → $1,064 | +$188 |
National context
The Bank of Canada's Staff Analytical Note 2025-21 finds that about 60% of outstanding Canadian mortgages are due to renew in 2025 or 2026, and that holders of five-year fixed-rate mortgages renewing in that window could face average payment increases of around 15%–20% compared with December 2024 payments — with holders renewing in 2026 facing an average increase of roughly 20%. HomeCalc's standardized index lands at 21.5% using observed funds-advanced rates (2.14% → 4.34%), consistent with that national picture while ranking cities by the dollar size of the jump.
Methodology
- Start from each market's CREA MLS® HPI composite benchmark in June 2021 (purchase cohort) and record the June 2026 benchmark for context.
- Assume a 20% down payment on the 2021 benchmark and a 25-year amortization at the observed June 2021 Bank of Canada uninsured five-year-plus fixed funds-advanced rate (2.14%).
- After 60 months, compute the remaining balance and re-amortize that balance over the remaining term at the May 2026 observed rate (4.34%).
- Monthly shock = new payment − old payment. Rank markets by the dollar shock.
Formulas
- Principal₀ = 0.80 × Benchmark₂₀₂₁
- Balance₆₀ = remaining principal after 60 monthly payments at r_old
- Shock = Payment(Balance₆₀, r_new, remaining amort) − Payment(Principal₀, r_old, 25 yr)
Canadian mortgages use semi-annual compounding. Payment() converts the contractual annual rate to the equivalent monthly rate before solving the standard annuity formula.
Why the percentage is identical across markets: the index standardizes rates, down payment, amortization, and elapsed term. Under identical financing assumptions, home prices scale the remaining balance and therefore the dollar shock, but the percentage change in payment is the same in every city. City-level percentage differences would require borrower-level rate and amortization data that CREA does not publish.
Sources
- CREA MLS® Home Price Index — July 2026 workbook release (June 2026 HPI cohort). crea.ca/housing-market-stats/mls-home-price-index
- Bank of Canada series V122667786 — interest rates for new uninsured fixed mortgages of five years and over: 2.14% (June 2021) / 4.34% (May 2026). bankofcanada.ca interest-rates series
- Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note 2025-21 — How will mortgage payments change at renewal? bankofcanada.ca/2025/07/staff-analytical-note-2025-21
Suggested citation: Tahm, H. (2026). Renewal Shock Index 2026 — Canada's Mortgage Renewal Payment Ranking (July 2026 edition (June 2026 HPI cohort)). HomeCalc. https://homecalc.ca/reports/renewal-shock-index-2026
This report is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, mortgage, tax, or legal advice. Figures are modelled under a standardized scenario and will not match any individual mortgage. Always verify current rates and consult a licensed mortgage professional before making renewal decisions.
MLS® and Multiple Listing Service® are registered trademarks owned by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and licensed to its member boards and associations. The CREA MLS® Home Price Index and related data are used here under CREA's published terms for statistical citation; HomeCalc is not affiliated with or endorsed by CREA.
Frequently Asked Questions
▶ Your mortgage will not match the benchmark exactly — see your own renewal number
- Mortgage renewal calculatorEnter your balance, rate and remaining amortization.
Last reviewed: July 2026 · Disclaimer