By Hami Tahm · Updated for the October 28, 2026 decision
HomeCalc Research · Before the announcement
Bank of Canada Rate Decision, October 28, 2026: What It Means for Your Mortgage
What does the Bank of Canada decision mean for my mortgage?
The Bank of Canada announces its next rate decision on October 28, 2026 at 9:45 a.m. ET. Its policy rate is 2.25% and lenders' prime rate is 4.45%. If the Bank cuts by 0.25 points, a variable-rate payment on a $600,000 mortgage (25-year amortization) would fall by about $83 a month and the interest on a $100,000 HELOC by about $21. Fixed-rate payments don't change until renewal. HomeCalc doesn't forecast the decision; the table below shows each outcome.
Announcement: October 28, 2026, 9:45 a.m. ET
Today: policy rate 2.25%, prime 4.45%. This page is updated with the actual decision on the day. HomeCalc doesn't forecast the outcome; the table shows what each one would mean.
What each outcome would mean
Starting point: policy rate 2.25%, prime 4.45%, HomeCalc's conventional variable reference rate 4.60%. Payments are principal and interest with a 25-year amortization, calculated with the same engine as the Canadian mortgage rates page. Changes are versus today.
| Cut of 0.25 points | Hold | Hike of 0.25 points | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of Canada policy rate | 2.00% | 2.25% | 2.50% |
| Prime rate | 4.20% | 4.45% | 4.70% |
| Variable rate (conventional reference) | 4.35% | 4.60% | 4.85% |
| Monthly payment, $400,000 mortgage | $2,181 (−$55) | $2,236 (no change) | $2,292 (+$56) |
| Monthly payment, $600,000 mortgage | $3,271 (−$83) | $3,354 (no change) | $3,439 (+$85) |
| HELOC interest per month, $100,000 balance | $392 (−$21) | $413 (no change) | $433 (+$20) |
| Stress-test rate, new insured variable borrower | 5.25% | 5.40% | 5.65% |
Who is affected, and how
- Variable rate, adjustable payment: the payment changes with prime, usually from the next payment.
- Variable rate, fixed payment: the payment stays the same. A cut sends more of each payment to principal; a hike sends more to interest.
- HELOC: priced at prime plus a spread, so interest changes the same day prime does.
- Fixed rate: no change until renewal. New fixed rates follow bond yields more than the policy rate.
- Buying or renewing with a new lender: the stress test uses the greater of your contract rate + 2.00% or 5.25%, so a cut only helps a variable borrower until the 5.25% floor. Stress test calculator.
Frequently Asked Questions
Method and sources
Policy rate and schedule: Bank of Canada. Prime is the policy rate + 2.20 points, as set by Canadian lenders. Variable and HELOC rates are HomeCalc's reference rates, refreshed weekly; your lender's rate may differ. Stress-test rule: OSFI Guideline B-20. HomeCalc doesn't forecast rate decisions. This is general information, not financial advice.
Media: cite as HomeCalc.ca, homecalc.ca/reports/bank-of-canada-rate-decision. Contact hami@homecalc.ca.
▶ Run your own numbers
- Mortgage renewal calculatorYour payment at renewal at today's rates.
- HELOC & second mortgage calculatorWhat your home equity line costs at the new prime.
- Canadian mortgage rates todayPrime, fixed, variable and HELOC reference rates.