By Hami Tahm · Published November 2026 · Rates to August 2026 · Incomes to 2023
HomeCalc Research · November 2026 edition
Canadian Mortgage Affordability History & City Gap Index: The Income Needed to Qualify, 2014–2026, in 17 Cities
Has it become harder to qualify for a mortgage in Canada?
According to HomeCalc.ca: Yes, mainly because of rates. Holding the price and today's stress test constant, the income needed to qualify for the $925,000 Toronto scenario rose 18.9% between 2021 and 2023, from $163,500 to $194,400, as the average insured 5-year fixed rate went from 2.09% to 5.13%. With rates near 3.99% in 2026, it is $175,400. Median family incomes rose too, but in 2023 the income needed was still above the local median in 10 of the 17 cities.
Explore a city
Income needed, 2026
$175,400
$925,000 illustrative price, minimum down, today's stress test
Median family income, 2023
$102,570
Up 36.3% since 2014 (Statistics Canada)
Gap in 2023
1.90× median
The median family was $91,830 short
At the same $925,000 price, the income needed was lowest in 2014 ($163,500) and highest in 2023 ($194,400). In 2023, the monthly payment at that year's average rate took 61.5% of the median family's gross income. 2026 uses January–August rates.
| Year | Avg rate | Stress rate | Monthly P&I | Income needed | Median income | Needed ÷ median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 3.16% | 5.25% | $4,294 | $163,500 | $75,270 | 2.17× |
| 2015 | 2.77% | 5.25% | $4,116 | $163,500 | $78,280 | 2.09× |
| 2016 | 2.65% | 5.25% | $4,062 | $163,500 | $80,310 | 2.04× |
| 2017 | 2.85% | 5.25% | $4,152 | $163,500 | $83,020 | 1.97× |
| 2018 | 3.43% | 5.43% | $4,420 | $166,400 | $86,670 | 1.92× |
| 2019 | 3.14% | 5.25% | $4,285 | $163,500 | $89,150 | 1.83× |
| 2020 | 2.40% | 5.25% | $3,951 | $163,500 | $96,700 | 1.69× |
| 2021 | 2.09% | 5.25% | $3,815 | $163,500 | $97,950 | 1.67× |
| 2022 | 3.83% | 5.83% | $4,609 | $172,800 | $99,540 | 1.74× |
| 2023 | 5.13% | 7.13% | $5,253 | $194,400 | $102,570 | 1.90× |
| 2024 | 4.75% | 6.75% | $5,061 | $188,000 | not yet published | — |
| 2025 | 4.03% | 6.03% | $4,706 | $176,100 | not yet published | — |
| 2026 | 3.99% | 5.99% | $4,686 | $175,400 | not yet published | — |
Illustrative scenario, not a market price. Principal and interest only — property tax, heating and condo fees raise the income needed. Rates: Bank of Canada, average on new insured 5-year-plus fixed mortgages. Incomes: Statistics Canada Table 11-10-0009-01, median total income of all families. Check your own numbers.
The 2023 city gap: income needed versus median family income
Ranked by how far the income needed is above the local median. Above 1.00× means a median family could not qualify for the scenario price on its own income. The last column uses 2026 rates.
| # | City | Illustrative price | Income needed 2023 | Median 2023 | Needed ÷ median | Payment share of median | Income needed 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver | $1,075,000 | $225,000 | $107,720 | 2.09× | 67.7% | $203,000 |
| 2 | Toronto | $925,000 | $194,400 | $102,570 | 1.90× | 61.5% | $175,400 |
| 3 | Victoria | $875,000 | $184,200 | $121,850 | 1.51× | 49.0% | $166,200 |
| 4 | Hamilton-Burlington | $725,000 | $153,600 | $115,460 | 1.33× | 43.1% | $138,600 |
| 5 | Kitchener-Waterloo | $625,000 | $133,200 | $108,990 | 1.22× | 39.6% | $120,200 |
| 6 | London | $550,000 | $117,900 | $99,560 | 1.18× | 38.4% | $106,400 |
| 7 | Montreal | $575,000 | $123,000 | $107,640 | 1.14× | 37.0% | $111,000 |
| 8 | Halifax-Dartmouth | $575,000 | $123,000 | $108,030 | 1.14× | 36.9% | $111,000 |
| 9 | Calgary | $575,000 | $123,000 | $116,530 | 1.06× | 34.2% | $111,000 |
| 10 | Ottawa | $650,000 | $138,300 | $134,550 | 1.03× | 33.3% | $124,800 |
| 11 | Saskatoon | $450,000 | $96,900 | $111,120 | 0.87× | 28.3% | $87,400 |
| 12 | Moncton | $375,000 | $80,800 | $94,300 | 0.86× | 27.8% | $72,900 |
| 13 | Winnipeg | $400,000 | $86,100 | $102,140 | 0.84× | 27.3% | $77,700 |
| 14 | St. John's | $425,000 | $91,500 | $113,450 | 0.81× | 26.2% | $82,600 |
| 15 | Edmonton | $425,000 | $91,500 | $114,130 | 0.80× | 26.0% | $82,600 |
| 16 | Quebec City | $425,000 | $91,500 | $117,880 | 0.78× | 25.2% | $82,600 |
| 17 | Regina | $350,000 | $75,400 | $112,700 | 0.67× | 21.7% | $68,000 |
The rates behind it
Annual averages of the rate Canadian chartered banks actually charged on new insured fixed mortgages of 5 years or more, and the stress-test rate that today's rule produces from it. Until 2022, the 5.25% floor set the qualifying rate in every year, which is why the income needed barely moved from 2014 to 2021.
| Year | Average rate | Stress-test rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 3.16% | 5.25% |
| 2015 | 2.77% | 5.25% |
| 2016 | 2.65% | 5.25% |
| 2017 | 2.85% | 5.25% |
| 2018 | 3.43% | 5.43% |
| 2019 | 3.14% | 5.25% |
| 2020 | 2.40% | 5.25% |
| 2021 | 2.09% | 5.25% |
| 2022 | 3.83% | 5.83% |
| 2023 | 5.13% | 7.13% |
| 2024 | 4.75% | 6.75% |
| 2025 | 4.03% | 6.03% |
| 2026 | 3.99% | 5.99% |
Methodology
- Price. Each city uses the same round illustrative price as HomeCalc's Cash-to-Close Index, held fixed for every year. These are scenarios, not market prices, so the index shows what rates and incomes did, not what home prices did.
- Rules. Today's minimum down payment and CMHC premium (added to the loan), 25-year amortization, and today's stress test: the greater of the rate + 2 points and 5.25% (OSFI). The same rules are applied to every year on purpose; the actual rules were looser before 2016.
- Rate. Bank of Canada series V122667780, average rate on new insured fixed mortgages of 5 years or more, chartered banks, monthly, averaged by calendar year. 2026 averages January to August.
- Income needed. Principal and interest at the stress-test rate divided by a 39% gross debt service limit, rounded to $100. Property tax, heating and condo fees are not included, so this is a floor.
- Median income. Statistics Canada Table 11-10-0009-01, median total income of all census families by metropolitan area, 2014–2023. Statistics Canada has delayed the 2024 release to winter 2026-27. Ottawa uses the Ontario part of Ottawa-Gatineau.
- Every figure is computed with the engines behind HomeCalc's calculators. The CSV has every city and year.
This is an illustrative estimate, not financial advice. Lenders look at your full file, including debts, property tax and the actual price.
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Embed code — Toronto
<iframe src="https://homecalc.ca/embed/report/affordability-history?city=toronto" title="Mortgage affordability history — Toronto" width="100%" height="900" style="border:0" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px">Data: <a href="https://homecalc.ca/reports/mortgage-affordability-history-index">HomeCalc Mortgage Affordability History Index</a></p>
Frequently Asked Questions
Cite this report
HomeCalc.ca, Canadian Mortgage Affordability History & City Gap Index, November 2026, homecalc.ca/reports/mortgage-affordability-history-index. Media: hami@homecalc.ca
▶ Your price and income won't match these scenarios — run your own numbers
- Mortgage qualifierThe income you need to pass the stress test.
- Mortgage affordability calculatorThe most you can borrow on your income.
- Stress test calculatorYour qualifying rate and GDS/TDS ratios.
- Cash-to-Close IndexThe upfront cash for the same 17 city scenarios.